Second-Order Thinking in Markets
4 min readWhy the obvious answer is rarely the profitable one. Understanding how to think beyond first-level effects in investing.
Insights
Essays on markets, finance, and business. Mental models and frameworks for making better decisions.
The Risk-First Framework
5 min readWhy I evaluate every investment by what I can lose before considering what I can gain. A contrarian approach to portfolio construction.
Mental Models for Business Analysis
6 min readThe five frameworks I use to understand any business in 30 minutes. Simple tools for complex analysis.
The Long-Term Perspective Advantage
5 min readWhy thinking in decades instead of quarters gives you an unfair advantage in markets obsessed with the short term.
Avoiding Financial Media Noise
4 min readHow I filter signal from noise in a world of 24/7 financial commentary. Less information often leads to better decisions.
Defining Your Circle of Competence
4 min readWhy knowing what you don't know is the most valuable investment skill. Drawing boundaries around your expertise.